Economics

Argentina’s half-baked adjustment has not worked

August 16, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development

Brazil must hold to structural reforms while undergoing slow economic recovery

August 14, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Brazil's economic recovery after the deep 2015-16 recession has been the slowest on record, with GDP per capita last year remaining more than 9% below its pre-crisis peak.

Natural Wealth and Economic Growth: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

August 7, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
This note approaches the relationship between natural wealth and economic growth, using the case of Sub-Sahara African economies as an illustration. Delving into recent World Bank reports, it highlights how a sustained positive correlation between natural capital and GDP growth happens through the transformation of the former into other forms of assets: produced capital, human capital and other intangible assets. Governance features and the quality of macroeconomic policies are of the essence for such a benign trajectory to take place.

Mercosur-EU Trade Agreement: Better Late than Never

July 3, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Twenty years after negotiations began between Mercosur and the European Union (EU), a trade agreement between ministers was reached last Friday in Brussels.

Global trade: from ‘rule of law’ to ‘law of the jungle’

June 11, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Friday night, US President Donald Trump announced by Twitter that he would suspend the implementation of tariffs on Mexican imports, which would start with 5% on Monday, June 10, to reach 25% in October.

Middle Income Countries and Multilateral Development Banks: Traps on the Way to Graduation

June 5, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have two financing windows, with different terms, dedicated to low- and middle-income countries. Countries are presumed to cross those windows as their income per capita rises, with middle-income countries (MICs) eventually “graduating” to a non-client status once they reach some criteria.

Poverty reduction in Brazil… partially gone with the cycle

May 21, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development

Traps on the Road to High Income

May 4, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of developing countries that succeeded in evolving from low-to middle-levels of per capita income, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward the higher income levels of advanced economies.

Modern Monetary Theory – A Critique

April 16, 2019 | Warren Coats - Monetary Policy Expert, Advisor for Central Banks
So called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become popular with Green New Dealers because it claims to remove or at least loosen traditional constraints on government spending.

Global economy at a delicate moment, says the IMF

April 12, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Next week, the 2019 Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will take place in Washington, in this 75th year since the birth of the two institutions. Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, speaking on Tuesday at the US Chamber of Commerce, offered an appetizer about the macroeconomic projections to be released.