Economics

Global trade: from ‘rule of law’ to ‘law of the jungle’

June 11, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Friday night, US President Donald Trump announced by Twitter that he would suspend the implementation of tariffs on Mexican imports, which would start with 5% on Monday, June 10, to reach 25% in October.

Middle Income Countries and Multilateral Development Banks: Traps on the Way to Graduation

June 5, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have two financing windows, with different terms, dedicated to low- and middle-income countries. Countries are presumed to cross those windows as their income per capita rises, with middle-income countries (MICs) eventually “graduating” to a non-client status once they reach some criteria.

Poverty reduction in Brazil… partially gone with the cycle

May 21, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development

Traps on the Road to High Income

May 4, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of developing countries that succeeded in evolving from low-to middle-levels of per capita income, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward the higher income levels of advanced economies.

Modern Monetary Theory – A Critique

April 16, 2019 | Warren Coats - Monetary Policy Expert, Advisor for Central Banks
So called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become popular with Green New Dealers because it claims to remove or at least loosen traditional constraints on government spending.

Global economy at a delicate moment, says the IMF

April 12, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Next week, the 2019 Spring Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will take place in Washington, in this 75th year since the birth of the two institutions. Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, speaking on Tuesday at the US Chamber of Commerce, offered an appetizer about the macroeconomic projections to be released.

New Challenges Faced by the Bretton Woods Institutions

April 5, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
In their 75 years of existence, the twin institutions born at the Bretton Woods Conference have undergone adaptation and transformation in response to the evolution of the world economy and the challenges it has posed to them.

How Chinese Investment in Latin America Is Changing

March 15, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
China's push for Latin American consumers reflects changes back home.

China’s Growth Rebalance With Downslide

March 4, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
China’s economic growth has been in a downslide trend since 2011, while its economic structure has gradually rebalanced toward lower dependence on investments and current-account surpluses. Steadiness in that trajectory has been accompanied by rising levels of domestic private debt, as well as slow progress in rebalancing private and public sector roles. As the ongoing trade war with the US continues to unfold, it remains unclear at which growth pace China’s rebalancing will tend to settle.

Why Brazil Must Build a (Fiscal) Wall

January 31, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Without reforms, financial markets’ optimism may crumble – and bring the house down.