The IMF needs a bridge-builder at the helm – that’s what it looks set to get

September 20, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
If appointed, the Bulgarian-born economist Kristalina Georgieva will be the first managing director of the IMF to come from Eastern Europe.

‘Growth-Yield Curve-Trade-Market’: Financial Roulette

September 2, 2019 | Satyendra Nayak - Consultant-Spectrafin, Author, Speaker
US stock market crash by 3% with Dow plunging down by 800 points is one of the worst falls in recent years. News of economy’s growth momentum, Fed moves, market perception and reaction, and tussle on trade tariffs have all gone to cloud the US economic environment and sentiment with a considerable degree of uncertainty and suspense.

Fed Monetary Policy, Inverted Yield Curve and Outlook for US and Global Economies

August 26, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Since the Fed’s July meeting, when the Fed Funds Rate had a 0.25% cut, fears about the impact of the US-China trade war on the global economy have escalated. The US yield curve inversion received much attention as a harbinger of a slowdown in the global and US economic outlooks. We approach here whether lights on next monetary policy events can be obtained from reading the minutes of the Fed’s meeting – and of the July meeting of the ECB governing council – released this week.

Christmas Comes Early to Rare Earth Miners

August 21, 2019 | Gregory Silberman - Chief Investment Officer, Atlanta Capital Group
…And so the saga continues, China holds the threat of withdrawing REMs from the US, threatening to undermine global supply chains. These threats translated into action when China last week increased the import duties on ores and concentrates to 25%.

Argentina’s half-baked adjustment has not worked

August 16, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development

Brazil must hold to structural reforms while undergoing slow economic recovery

August 14, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Brazil's economic recovery after the deep 2015-16 recession has been the slowest on record, with GDP per capita last year remaining more than 9% below its pre-crisis peak.

Natural Wealth and Economic Growth: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

August 7, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
This note approaches the relationship between natural wealth and economic growth, using the case of Sub-Sahara African economies as an illustration. Delving into recent World Bank reports, it highlights how a sustained positive correlation between natural capital and GDP growth happens through the transformation of the former into other forms of assets: produced capital, human capital and other intangible assets. Governance features and the quality of macroeconomic policies are of the essence for such a benign trajectory to take place.

Mercosur-EU Trade Agreement: Better Late than Never

July 3, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Twenty years after negotiations began between Mercosur and the European Union (EU), a trade agreement between ministers was reached last Friday in Brussels.

Rare Earths and Rarer Good Sense

June 14, 2019 | Gregory Silberman - Chief Investment Officer, Atlanta Capital Group
Holy Guacamole, and three kinds of chips and dips! China did not just threaten to cut off supply of rare earth minerals to the US? REMs are one of the few commodities on which the U.S. has not placed any extra import duties. Now they want to stop supplying it?

Global trade: from ‘rule of law’ to ‘law of the jungle’

June 11, 2019 | Otaviano Canuto - Principal, Center for Macroeconomics and Development
Friday night, US President Donald Trump announced by Twitter that he would suspend the implementation of tariffs on Mexican imports, which would start with 5% on Monday, June 10, to reach 25% in October.